Interesting piece. This is purely anecdotal but I've found that most people have tried to analogize the Venezuela situation with the 2003 Iraq War as opposed to Libya.
I think Iraq is a slightly better fit in that there's a spurious excuse to invade, plus you can see a scenario where the opposition is temporarily triumphant and overplays their hand as a result, banning the old guard of the Chavista days from ever holding office again or something (like in Iraq with old Saddam people). This drives them to gamble everything on an extended military uprising.
With that said, this was only part of the story in Iraq, which also had a ton of other factors that make it closer to the Libyan case, not least the porous borders into which Islamists from other areas could pour in to keep the conflict going, including ISIS in the 2010s.
Bay of Pigs would be potentially more helpful of an analogy than Libya because in the Cuban precedent you have a poorly planned operation where the opposition is left out to try and it serves as a gift to the gov by making them seem like compradors serving a foreign power.
There's also a ton of differences though. Not least being that Cuba's opposition leadership left en masse while MCM is still in Venezuela and seems to have widespread support given the results of last year's stolen election.
Interesting piece. This is purely anecdotal but I've found that most people have tried to analogize the Venezuela situation with the 2003 Iraq War as opposed to Libya.
I think Iraq is a slightly better fit in that there's a spurious excuse to invade, plus you can see a scenario where the opposition is temporarily triumphant and overplays their hand as a result, banning the old guard of the Chavista days from ever holding office again or something (like in Iraq with old Saddam people). This drives them to gamble everything on an extended military uprising.
With that said, this was only part of the story in Iraq, which also had a ton of other factors that make it closer to the Libyan case, not least the porous borders into which Islamists from other areas could pour in to keep the conflict going, including ISIS in the 2010s.
Do you feel a similar way about analogies to the Bay of Pigs invasion?
Bay of Pigs would be potentially more helpful of an analogy than Libya because in the Cuban precedent you have a poorly planned operation where the opposition is left out to try and it serves as a gift to the gov by making them seem like compradors serving a foreign power.
There's also a ton of differences though. Not least being that Cuba's opposition leadership left en masse while MCM is still in Venezuela and seems to have widespread support given the results of last year's stolen election.